A year ago, three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar, breaking a strategic stalemate and swiftly capturing significant territory. This development has inspired further attacks across the country.
Prior to this offensive, the military, backed by superior troops and firepower along with support from Russia and China, appeared firmly in control. However, the regime is now on the defensive, having lost numerous outposts, bases, and strategic cities, a fact even its leaders admit will be difficult to reverse.
The military seized power from elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, which intensified confrontations with established armed groups associated with ethnic minorities and spurred the formation of new pro-democracy militias.
Operation 1027, named for its October 27 start date, marked a pivotal moment as it involved coordinated attacks from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, collectively known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance. These groups quickly seized towns and overwhelmed military positions along the border with China in northeastern Shan State.
Two weeks after the initial offensive, the Arakan Army expanded its campaign into its home region of Rakhine, and other militias joined the resistance.
A year into this offensive, resistance forces now control a vast area stretching from Rakhine state in the west, across the northern regions, and down to Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has retreated toward the capital Naypyidaw and major city Yangon.
Many expect a counteroffensive from the military as the rainy season concludes, bolstered by around 30,000 new troops recruited since the activation of conscription in February and its ongoing air superiority. Nevertheless, resistance forces are also advancing toward Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city.
Connor Macdonald from the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar believes the military faces a daunting challenge in reclaiming lost territory. “Every time it focuses its efforts on one area, it leaves itself vulnerable in others,” he explained, noting the Tatmadaw is now on the defensive nationwide.
As the military struggles on the ground, it has increasingly resorted to indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery shelling, leading to a reported 95% spike in civilian deaths due to air strikes and a 170% rise in fatalities from artillery since Operation 1027 began, according to a recent U.N. report.
The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians in retaliation for perceived support of resistance groups, claims it refutes.
The ongoing conflict has displaced hundreds of thousands, leaving over 3 million people internally displaced in Myanmar and approximately 18.6 million in urgent need of assistance, as reported by the U.N.
The expansion of militia operations beyond their traditional territories has created underlying tensions, which could pose challenges if the Tatmadaw were to collapse. While currently united against a common enemy, expert Aung Thu Nyein cautioned that without shared political goals, fragmentation could ensue.
If the junta were to fall, it could lead to a disjointed Myanmar unless ethnic groups work collaboratively to resolve their differences, as indicated by Thu Nyein.
The situation is further complicated by the involvement of China, which has shown tacit support for the Operation 1027 offensive, intending to curtail organized crime along its border. In January, China used its connections with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan State, which lasted five months until accusations of ceasefire violations prompted the ethnic alliance to resume its offensive.
China has reacted to the escalating violence by shutting down border crossings and cutting electricity to towns in Myanmar in attempts to quell the conflict, though these efforts have so far been unsuccessful.
Credit: ABC News
