Tropical Cyclone Alfred has intensified and is projected to make a sharp turn towards the densely populated southeast Queensland coast on Tuesday afternoon. The storm has been upgraded from a category one to a category two, with wind gusts reaching up to 130 km/h.
Updated tracking from the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that Alfred may make landfall just north of Brisbane overnight on Thursday, posing a significant risk to the Queensland capital, which has a population of 2.5 million and is prone to severe flooding. Most of the intense rainfall is expected to occur south of the landfall point.
As of early Tuesday morning, Alfred was located 560 km east of Brisbane, moving southeast at approximately 6 km/h. Forecasters confidently predict that the cyclone will undergo a “recurvature” by Tuesday afternoon, altering its trajectory due to interaction with another weather system to the south.
“Models indicate that the strengthening ridge to the south will steer Alfred westward later today,” stated the bureau’s technical bulletin. The anticipated landfall location could stretch from the Sunshine Coast to the Gold Coast, with some uncertainty regarding the timing of the coastal impact, expected between late Thursday and Friday morning. Estimates suggest that the strongest winds, potentially up to 100 km/h, will occur to the south of the cyclone.
Residents in southeast Queensland have started their preparations. Brisbane has faced severe flooding three times in the past 15 years, and while northern Queensland typically braces for cyclones, locals in Brisbane do not commonly prepare to that extent. Many older homes in the area, known as “Queenslanders,” were built of timber in the early 1900s and may not withstand strong winds effectively.
Andrew Gissing, CEO of Natural Hazards Research Australia, highlighted the importance of early preparation, stating, “Early preparation can reduce damage and increase safety.” He noted that research following the 2022 floods revealed that half of residents felt they could have been better prepared.
Gissing warned of significant hazards associated with cyclones, including flooding, strong winds, and coastal erosion, particularly concerning in densely populated areas. He emphasized that the potential damages from Alfred could affect homes, businesses, infrastructure, and essential services, leading to agricultural losses and posing risks to life.
Additionally, significant coastal damage can occur even if the cyclone does not make landfall, driven by abnormally high tides and rough surf. Gissing also pointed out that homes built before 1980 may not adhere to current building codes and could be at greater risk from strong winds.
Credit: The Guardian
