A recent report from a U.S. think tank claims that China is not adequately prepared for war, suggesting that the Communist Party’s ongoing military modernization efforts are primarily aimed at maintaining its grip on power rather than engaging in military conflicts.
Despite an aggressive buildup under leader Xi Jinping, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has not fully transitioned into a war-ready force, with analysts arguing that its rapid advancements serve to bolster the ruling party’s credibility. According to the report, the PLA has started to rival, and in some areas, even surpass, the U.S. military in assessments of combat readiness.
U.S. defense simulations have highlighted the difficulties American forces might face when engaging the PLA near Chinese shores, particularly over Taiwan, which China claims as its territory.
Timothy Heath, a researcher at RAND Corporation, noted in the report, “The PLA remains fundamentally focused on upholding Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule rather than preparing for war.” He emphasized that the focus on political control within the military hampers its ability to respond effectively in combat situations. For instance, approximately 40% of training time is reportedly devoted to political education rather than essential combat skills.
Experts pointed out that the command structure within the PLA is divided, with political commissars prioritizing party loyalty over military effectiveness. This arrangement might impede commanders’ ability to adapt swiftly during crises.
While acknowledging the challenges, other analysts countered Heath’s assertions, suggesting that Xi has made clear his military ambitions, particularly regarding Taiwan. They argue that the PLA’s expansion and modernization are indications of its readiness to assert control over the island.
In terms of armament, China continues to make strides, including the world’s largest naval fleet and developments in stealth aircraft and hypersonic weapons. However, doubts linger about whether the PLA can effectively leverage these advancements in a conflict scenario.
The underlying political context is crucial. While a potential invasion of Taiwan is a subject of speculation, the method of achieving influence without direct military confrontation is also on the table. Strategies could include blockades, airstrikes, or maintaining a continued military presence around Taiwan — tactics that have proven effective for the Communist Party in reinforcing its authority domestically.
Heath argues that the purpose of military modernization is to enhance the PLA’s capabilities in upholding the CCP’s rule, rather than preparing for outright conflict. This sentiment is echoed by Drew Thompson from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, who stated that the narrative generated by these developments is often more significant than the military outcomes themselves.
Despite ongoing internal challenges, experts warn that the PLA cannot be dismissed as a “paper tiger.” Analysts agree that the Chinese military presents a real threat, capable of engaging in conflict if necessary, although defining victory in such scenarios remains complex.
Credit: CNN
