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Gaza Ceasefire: Why Credit Must Go to Trump, Not Biden

Gaza Ceasefire: Why Credit Must Go to Trump, Not Biden

The recent ceasefire deal in Gaza reflects a similar proposal made by President Biden back in May, but several factors, including Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House, have altered the landscape. When asked whether he or Trump deserved credit for the agreement, Biden responded with apparent annoyance, saying, “Is that a joke?” This question arose after Trump had claimed near-total credit for the ceasefire in a social media statement, stating that it could only have happened due to “our Historic Victory in November.”

While it’s essential to consider whether this deal will hold or lead to lasting peace, a key inquiry remains: “Why now?” The current ceasefire is virtually identical to Biden’s proposal from last May, yet the geopolitical landscape has shifted significantly since then. Iran’s influence in the region has waned, and both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have suffered considerable setbacks. The collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria and the weakened state of the Iranian government—responsible for supporting Hamas—have further changed the dynamics.

Biden sought to attribute the current favorable conditions to U.S. support for Israel, stating, “It’s America’s support for Israel that helped them badly weaken Hamas and its backers.” However, while U.S. backing has been significant, Israel’s military actions, such as its operations against Hezbollah, were undertaken without American endorsement. Nevertheless, American support has undeniably bolstered Israel’s ability to defend itself and maintain offensive capabilities, placing it in a stronger strategic position today than in recent months.

Domestic politics in Israel have also evolved, with Netanyahu less reliant on his far-right faction, making a temporary halt in fighting more palatable.

However, Trump’s unpredictability played a vital role in this scenario. His statement about “all hell will break loose” if hostages weren’t released by his inauguration focused the attention of all parties involved. The ambiguity of Trump’s comments created uncertainty for the Qataris, Egyptians, Israelis, Hamas, and Iranians, prompting them to reassess their strategies.

For Netanyahu, Trump represents a unique opportunity. The Israeli Prime Minister is keen on normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, which ties into the Abraham Accords initiated during Trump’s presidency. To achieve this goal, Netanyahu needs Trump’s support, making it essential for him to align with Trump’s interests.

Both Biden and Trump can claim responsibility for the ceasefire, but it is unlikely that this agreement would have reached fruition at this point without Trump’s looming influence. The unprecedented cooperation between the outgoing and incoming administrations played a critical role in returning to the negotiation table and achieving this agreement.

Credit: Sky News

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