Asteroid 2024 YR4 has recently made headlines due to fluctuating predictions regarding its potential to hit Earth. Initially, scientists estimated a 3.1% chance of impact in 2032, but that number has since dropped to 0.28%. Current assessments suggest the asteroid may be more likely to collide with the Moon, with NASA estimating a 1% probability of that occurring.
Since YR4 was first identified through a telescope in Chile two months ago, multiple other objects have passed closer to Earth than the Moon, starkly illustrating the frequency of near-misses and potential impacts that often go unnoticed.
Asteroids, remnants from the formation of our solar system around 4.6 billion years ago, frequently orbit near Earth. While many are harmless, some present valuable insights into cosmic history and the potential impacts on our planet.
Professor Mark Boslough from the University of New Mexico notes that serious astronomical monitoring has only been in place since the late 20th century. He emphasizes that many large objects—40 meters in diameter or more—pass between Earth and the Moon multiple times a year.
A notable near-miss is the asteroid Apophis, first detected in 2004 and measuring approximately 375 meters. It was considered highly hazardous until sufficient observations proved it wouldn’t collide with Earth.
Researchers stress the importance of readiness in the event of an asteroid threatening Earth. If YR4 were to collide, estimates suggest it could cause significant damage, generating a sizeable crater and risking lives within the surrounding region. Professor Kathryn Kunamoto from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory warns of the potential devastation if a large asteroid were to strike in a populated area.
Fortunately, advancements in planetary defense have increased preparedness. Professor Michel of the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group emphasizes the importance of organizing global responses for potential threats, conducting training exercises, and reviewing strategies for the safe evacuation of affected areas.
In the wake of such risks, scientific innovation continues to evolve. NASA’s successful Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) showcased the potential to alter an asteroid’s trajectory, although experts express skepticism regarding the feasibility of applying such technology to YR4 due to its composition and the limited time available for a deflection.
While many scientists express concern about impending asteroid impacts, they highlight that a land impact away from populated areas would offer an opportunity for research, providing samples from ancient cosmic bodies. Over 50,000 asteroids have been discovered in Antarctica, with notable examples like ALH 84001, believed to have originated from Mars and containing essential clues about the planet’s past.
As the likelihood of YR4 impacting the Moon increases, some scientists are beginning to view this event with excitement, as it presents a chance for real-world observations of asteroid impacts.
Professor Gareth Collins from Imperial College London reiterated the need for continuous study, stating, “Even one data point from a real event would be incredibly powerful.” As humanity faces the reality of living on a planet susceptible to celestial collisions, scientists urge not to become complacent, noting that the question is not “if” a large asteroid will threaten Earth, but rather “when” it will happen.
Ongoing advancements in space monitoring are promising, with the largest digital camera ever built set to begin operations at the Vera Rubin Observatory in Chile later this year, enhancing our ability to detect and track asteroids close to our planet.
Credit: BBC News
