Marine Le Pen’s decision to back the collapse of Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government presents both a significant opportunity and considerable risk for the leader of France’s far-right National Rally party.
In a recent statement, Le Pen emphasized that she is not calling for President Emmanuel Macron’s resignation but asserted that he is accountable for the political gridlock in France and that “pressure on the president will become stronger and stronger.”
Prior to urging for Barnier’s downfall, she claimed not to be the “master of the clocks,” or the one dictating the political agenda. However, her actions may position her as just that if she succeeds in undermining Macron’s second government after he defeated her in the 2022 presidential election.
As Barnier’s administration grows increasingly vulnerable, Le Pen appears to have gained the upper hand. Yet, this situation comes with immense risks.
Le Pen has been biding her time for years as the leader of National Rally (RN). While she may now be on the cusp of seizing power, she must navigate major decisions carefully. “Pushing for a no-confidence vote poses a significant risk because people are questioning whether she genuinely has the country’s best interests at heart or is merely pursuing her personal ambitions,” said Professor Armin Steinbach of HEC business school in Paris.
“What is apparent is that it’s not simply about Barnier—it’s about her attempt to weaken Macron to advance her own presidential aspirations,” he added.
Le Pen has long worked to “normalize” the National Rally in the eyes of the French public, rebranding the party from its predecessor, the National Front, six years ago. This June, during France’s snap parliamentary elections, the RN secured 32% of the vote, signaling that her efforts were nearing fruition, despite only managing third place in the run-off round.
Now, as the year nears its end, Le Pen is betting that French voters will perceive her push to bring down the weakened government as an act of national benefit. The contention centers around the government’s 2025 budget, which aims to reduce France’s budget deficit from 6% of national output (GDP). While Barnier had initially conceded to several of Le Pen’s demands regarding social security, she ultimately deemed these concessions insufficient.
The budget crisis represents not only political risks for Le Pen but also real economic consequences for France. In his first three months in the role, Barnier has urged MPs to prioritize the country’s interests. However, tensions escalated as Le Pen’s party leader Jordan Bardella accused him of employing a “strategy of fear.”
Le Pen’s allies have begun to sense that Macron may be on the brink of downfall. RN advisor Philippe Olivier described the president as a “fallen republican monarch” in an interview with Le Monde. Macron’s unexpected call for an early parliamentary election last June is viewed as a catalyst for the current political deadlock.
Le Pen argues that Barnier’s budget failed to adequately meet her demands, while Barnier countered that his proposals were not intended to cater to Le Pen’s preferences, accusing her of attempting to “enter a bidding war” during negotiations.
Should the no-confidence motion gain support from the RN alongside left-wing parties, it could spell the end for Barnier’s government. Historically, no French government has fallen in such a vote since 1962.
As Le Pen navigates this high-stakes situation, she faces pressure to demonstrate that her actions serve the national interest rather than personal ambition. Complicating matters further, she is currently facing a long-standing trial related to allegations of misusing European Parliament funds, with a ruling expected on March 31. Prosecutors are seeking a five-year ban from public office, which could extinguish her presidential aspirations if the verdict is unfavorable.
This moment represents a crucial opportunity for Le Pen—having previously run for the presidency three times, a successful bid in an upcoming election could finally yield her a solid chance of winning.
However, she must also contend with the rising popularity of Jordan Bardella, who is seen as a strong contender for the party’s nomination in the next election and may eclipse Le Pen within both National Rally and the broader political landscape.
As this pivotal moment unfolds, the outcome will not only shape Le Pen’s political future but could also leave lasting implications on the French political landscape as a whole. If she missteps, the backlash may resound at the ballot box in the future.
Credit: BBC News
